The future of the automotive industry is electric, and Professor Ouyang Minggao, a leading expert in China's automotive technology, is predicting a rapid shift towards pure electric vehicles (BEVs). According to Ouyang, the writing is on the wall for plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles, which are already on a downward trajectory. By 2040, BEVs are expected to dominate the market, achieving an impressive 9:1 ratio over their hybrid counterparts.
Ouyang's prediction is based on the fundamental efficiency advantage of pure electric drive. He highlights that BEVs boast efficiency rates twice that of hydrogen vehicles and four times that of synthetic fuel internal combustion engine vehicles. This efficiency advantage, he argues, has already predetermined the decline of plug-in hybrids and extended-range models. The market share projections are equally impressive, with new energy passenger vehicles expected to exceed 70% market share by 2030, 80% by 2035, and remain above 80% by 2040, with BEVs dominating at a 9:1 ratio.
One area of caution is the current industry enthusiasm for solid-state batteries. Ouyang notes that while China has made significant progress in this field, with domestic production capacity of sulfide electrolytes exceeding 20,000 tons and prices falling from 20 million yuan per ton to under 1 million yuan per ton, all-solid-state batteries still face unresolved scientific challenges. He predicts that solid-state batteries achieving 300 Wh/kg energy density will likely appear by the end of 2030, but urges companies to proceed carefully with product launches and avoid treating the technology as a marketing gimmick.
Battery safety is another critical area of focus. Ouyang highlights three key milestones in battery safety development, including the suspension of ternary batteries in buses due to safety concerns in 2014, BYD's launch of lithium iron phosphate blade batteries in 2020, and the upcoming implementation of new battery safety standards requiring non-combustion and non-explosion performance. China lacks an authoritative safety ranking system, unlike some foreign markets where companies using ternary batteries have achieved top safety rankings through comprehensive lifecycle management.
The industry transformation is also being driven by emerging business models. Ouyang outlines five key models, including vertical integration with comprehensive electrification and intelligent empowerment, a dual-drive strategy combining fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, a new automaker model with internet thinking and smart terminal marketing, a horizontal integration model focused on intelligence and brand marketing, and state-owned enterprise reform to enhance market competitiveness.
For commercial trucks, Ouyang projects a rapid shift towards new energy vehicles, with market share expected to exceed 50% by 2030, over 60% by 2035, and over 70% by 2040. Total new energy vehicle ownership is expected to reach 100-150 million by 2030, 200-300 million by 2035, and 300-380 million by 2040. Green electricity consumption is projected to exceed 50% by 2030 and reach 65-70% by 2035, making electric vehicles truly 'new energy vehicles' powered predominantly by renewable sources.
In conclusion, Professor Ouyang's predictions highlight the rapid shift towards pure electric vehicles in China's automotive industry. While there are challenges to overcome, particularly in battery technology and safety, the efficiency advantage of BEVs and the industry's transformation through emerging business models suggest a bright future for electric vehicles in China and beyond.
